Can Hailey Bieber’s Rhode Skin Break the Beauty M&A Curse?

Hailey Bieber’s skincare line, Rhode, is riding high on brand buzz and social media visibility—but can it break through a sluggish beauty M&A market that has left even top-tier names without deals?

According to sources confirmed by WWD, Rhode has tapped financial heavyweights J.P. Morgan and Moelis to explore a potential sale or investment round at a valuation of $1 billion. That’s a bold figure for a relatively young brand, especially in an environment where marquee names like Rare Beauty, Makeup by Mario, and Kosas have reportedly explored deal opportunities to no avail.

A Valuation That Raises Eyebrows

Rhode reportedly pulled in around $200 million in revenue, an impressive figure given its limited product range and lack of traditional retail distribution. The $1 billion valuation implies a 5x revenue multiple—aggressive even by beauty standards, particularly when many investors and strategics are tightening their belts.

“Nobody paid $1 billion for Rare Beauty, nobody paid $1 billion for Makeup by Mario,” one source told WWD, underscoring the climate of caution. These are not obscure brands—they’re celebrity-fronted, heavily followed, and backed by real sales figures. Yet their deal ambitions remain unfulfilled, making Rhode’s aspirations look more aspirational than assured.

The M&A Freeze

The broader beauty M&A market has been largely stagnant. Economic uncertainty, inflationary pressures, and shifting consumer spending have all contributed to a slowdown in activity. Strategic buyers are prioritizing profitability and staying power over virality and momentum. The age of billion-dollar beauty deals based purely on hype—think Kylie Cosmetics’ $600 million Coty acquisition in 2019—is starting to feel like a relic of the pre-COVID era.

Add to that the fact that many digitally-native, celebrity-driven brands have struggled to prove long-term sustainability. Without robust brick-and-mortar distribution, scalable product pipelines, or international growth, investors are wary of overpaying.

What Makes Rhode Different?

Rhode’s potential edge lies in Hailey Bieber herself. With over 50 million Instagram followers and strong Gen Z appeal, her personal brand offers an always-on marketing engine. Unlike many celebrity brands that rely on name recognition but lack genuine product credibility, Rhode has been praised for quality, minimalist formulas and strong aesthetics. Products frequently sell out, and the brand has maintained a tightly curated line that cultivates demand through scarcity.

Still, questions remain: Can a social media-driven brand scale without retail channels? Can it transition from a cult favorite to a mainstream powerhouse? And crucially—can it do so at a price tag that makes sense for a buyer?

Betting on the Brand—or the Founder?

If Rhode does manage to pull off a deal close to its $1 billion target, it won’t be solely because of its current revenue. It’ll be a bet on Hailey Bieber’s continued relevance, the brand’s expansion potential, and the strategic value it could bring to a buyer looking to tap into a younger demographic.

Some industry insiders speculate that the deal could attract a buyer like Estée Lauder Companies or L’Oréal—giants with the infrastructure to supercharge distribution and marketing while absorbing the initial premium cost as a long-term brand equity investment.

But whether those buyers are in a position to take such a risk in this climate is another question. After all, if Rare Beauty—arguably even more culturally dominant and more widely distributed—hasn’t locked in a deal, it raises the question of whether any beauty brand can beat the current M&A freeze.

The Verdict: Long Odds, but Not Impossible

Hailey Bieber’s Rhode may be perfectly packaged for the digital age, but breaking the beauty M&A curse will require more than followers and FOMO. With top-tier talent representing the brand on the financial side, and an undeniably strong founder-story-product trifecta, Rhode has a shot—but the $1 billion question still looms large.

In this market, beauty may still be booming—but buyers are no longer blinded by the glow.